From president to rebel: Joseph Kabila now leads the alliance fighting the man he handed power to

L2Who’s affected

Congolese civilians in the east, where fighting continues despite a Trump-overseen peace accord. Analyst Ovigwe Eguegu: "It looks like the Congolese people are going to lose either way." The C64 opposition coalition refused to back Kabila's rebellion and wants direct talks with both men.

L3Why it’s quiet

Analysis · OVERLOOKED Eastern Congo's war has run for years with shifting alliances, and the news landed in the last week of the U.S. midterm campaign.

L4Deeper impact

Analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala says Kabila "was left with no other choice" and that his role lets Rwanda say "It's finally a Congolese rebellion." ICG's Richard Moncrieff: "Tshisekedi has strong American backing. He has a lot of money." Tshisekedi: "it's simply proof that he has never loved this country." Tshisekedi is rumoured to want a third term and has warned fighting could delay 2028 elections. As part of that deal the U.S. signed an agreement to extract DR Congo’s mineral wealth, and has sanctioned Rwandan officials.

L5Full context

Kabila fought in the rebellion that brought his father Laurent to power in 1997 and succeeded him after his 2001 assassination, ruling 18 years. Leaked results from Catholic Church observers say Martin Fayulu really won the 2018 election; ex-election chief Corneille Nangaa, now Kabila's FRN deputy, says he helped draft a Kabila-Tshisekedi deal. The power-sharing pact broke down in December 2020; Kabila went into exile in South Africa, reappeared in rebel-held Goma in 2025, and was sentenced to death in absentia that September. M23 formed in 2012 and fought Kabila's army; Rwanda denies backing it "despite overwhelming evidence," the BBC says.

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